Futarchy · conditional markets
Before you choose, price what each choice would do.
For every option on the table, traders forecast the measure you care about if that option is chosen. Trades on the options you don't pick are unwound. You get a forecast for each branch side by side, and the people deciding still make the decision.
A real decision on Seer: seven candidate events. Two measures of success, each priced for every branch: unique non-staff attendees and mean post-event rating (0–10).
AttendanceRating
Your weighting, not ours. Move it to see how the ranking changes when the goal changes.
#If this is heldAttendeesRatingScore
How a futarchy decision runs on Seer
01Decision marketOne categorical market lists the options. Its outcome tokens are the collateral for everything below it.
02Conditional metricsFor each option, a scalar market on the success measure, funded only with that option's tokens: "if Go-Karting is held, how many attend?"
03Read, then decideThe decision-makers compare the branches and choose. The market informs them; it doesn't vote.
04Settle one branchReality.eth reports the chosen option and the measured result; Kleros arbitrates disputes. The other branches go back to their traders.
DAO proposals · two branches
Pass or fail, priced in the token the DAO cares about
open Ethereum · closes 24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
What will the ETH price be if EIP-8363 is scheduled for inclusion in Hegotá?
If scheduled
2,381.90
USDS per ETH
If not
2,381.93
USDS per ETH
Impact −0.00%: the market doesn't expect this EIP to move ETH either way. A flat reading is a result too.
Recently resolved
Impact is the gap between the pass and fail prices. Of these seven, the one the market priced negative, GIP-149, is the one that failed.